Author: Sonja Marshall

What if?

Today I was looking at the C Marshall Fabrication Machinery Shears, and, as most of you who have been reading my post will know, that can lead to very odd places.

Once upon a time, in land far far away – ancient Greece and Rome to be exact, plate armor was invented and put into use.

Now, like most people, when I think of plate armor I think of Camelot, the Round Table, the Knights, etc., but interestingly enough, it was the Greeks, then the Romans who were the first “knights”.

The first plate armor was made of Bronze, but was only worn by elite soldiers as it was expensive as bronze is a combo of copper and tin. Today, most of us could tip up the cushions on our couch and find enough pennies to plate an army, but back then copper wasn’t as readily available.

So, as with everything, cost drove the Greeks and Romans to abandon it, particularly after the fall of the Roman Empire.

I mean really, if your empire is already fallen what do you need armor for right?

Of course things picked up in the 14th century and plate armor once again had a place in the world, especially with steel being used as the primary material.

However, it was still costly and time consuming to make, and only the upper strata could afford to buy it. Then of course you had to be strong enough to wear the stuff.

That’s where the knights came in. The knights, being nobility (and having to prove it with patents of nobility), were the only ones who could afford such a luxury.

Then the musket came. Thus marked the beginning of the end for plate armor…well the armor we’re talking about anyway.

The steel used for plate armor was great for swords and arrows, but just a smart man doesn’t bring a knife to a gun fight, he doesn’t pretend that his plate armor is going to stop a bullet either.

Now to my wrap up. I like stories and notions of alternative history. I like the ‘what if’ factor in them.

Many writers who write such, often focus on ‘what if a tank went back in time’ or ‘what if an airplane went back in time’. I like to think outside the box a bit, as those of you who know me can attest to.

What if an entire line of C Marshall Fabrication Machinery products were dropped into Germany in 1632 in the middle of the Thirty Years War? Mind you this is a war that completely devastated what is now Germany and in my opinion set the tone thereafter for the German people. As a people, they were never going to let that happen again. And that mind set eventually led too…well you know the rest there.

Think about it. What if they were given the tools to completely arm every soldier regardless of income or status? It could have given them the edge and victory instead of devastation. That victory could have then changed their mindset completely, therefore affecting the rest of history in so many ways.

I will let you mull that over, but a few words come to mind. Hitler, Holocaust, WWII.

What if?

U.S. manufacturers see emerging market boost

Reuters
1:04 p.m. CST, February 8, 2011

BOSTON (Reuters) – Strong demand from big emerging markets, particularly China and India, is boosting U.S. manufacturers’ prospects for 2011, a pair of top executives said on Tuesday.

But not everyone in the sector regards the recovery from the worst recession the world has seen in living memory as a sure thing.

“We feel very good about the economy,” said Greg Hayes, chief financial officer at United Technologies Corp . “There’s good news, but we’re not out of the woods yet … It’s going to be a gradual, slow, uneven recovery.”

A top General Electric Co executive sounded a more confident note on the economy in a presentation to investors.

“We feel really good about emerging market demand, really across all of our infrastructure businesses,” said John Rice, a GE vice chairman who oversees the company’s international operations. “We’re starting to see some signs that the economy is rebounding a little bit.”

Rice, recently transferred to Hong Kong and charged with accelerating GE’s growth outside the United States, said the company is changing the way it approaches developing markets. Building on a recent successful test in India, the largest U.S. conglomerate plans to move more higher-ranking executives into emerging markets to speed its decision-making, rather than requiring local executives to consult with headquarters in Fairfield, Connecticut.

The company has also begun designing more equipment, such as medical devices, with emerging-market customers in mind, rather than trying to retool machines made for rich customers.

“You can’t do it by downsizing … what you have,” Rice said. “You have to start with a clean piece of paper.”

Hartford, Connecticut-based United Tech is counting on growth in emerging markets — where it generated more than 20 percent of its revenues for the first time in its history last year — to drive 2011 sales growth, Hayes said.

The world’s largest maker of air conditioners and elevators expects to grow its Indian revenue to $2.5 billion by 2015, up from $500 million last year, Hayes told the same investor conference.

(Reporting by Scott Malone, editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

In Business Outreach, Obama Urges Companies To “Invest In America.”

To mostly positive media reviews, President Obama yesterday addressed executives in what has been billed by the White House as major outreach from Washington to business. His speech received widespread coverage in most major media outlets, some of which also reported on the reaction by business.

ABC World News (2/7, lead story, 2:50, Sawyer) reported that the President “delivered an urgent message to the companies to get in the game, start spending money and hiring workers — throwing down a gauntlet but also trying to build a bridge.” ABC (Tapper) added that “Obama is desperate to get the economy going,” and showed him saying, “So if I’ve got one message, my message is now is the time to invest in America. Now is the time to invest in America. And if there is a reason that you don’t share my confidence, if there is a reason that you don’t believe that this is the time to get off the sidelines, to hire and to invest, I want to know about it. I want to fix it.”

The CBS Evening News (12/7, story 3, 2:25, Couric) said “Obama continued his campaign to improve relations with business,” urging “corporate America to invest the nearly $2 trillion it has saved up and start hiring again. For his part, he President promised to address their complaints about the corporate tax code and burdensome government regulations.”

Bloomberg News (2/8, Brower, Dorning) reports that in his remarks, “Obama said he is doing his part to improve the business climate after a free- trade agreement with South Korea, a deal to extend Bush-era tax cuts, and a State of the Union address that proposed more government support for infrastructure and ‘innovation.'” The President “touched on some of the same themes he struck in his State of the Union address: the need to rebuild and modernize the nation’s transportation and telecommunications systems and take steps that will promote research and innovation in areas such as biotechnology, information technology and clean energy.”

Politico (2/8, Cummings),The Wall Street Journal (2/8, Williamson; subscription required), Financial Times (2/8, Braithwaite; subscription required) and Christian Science Monitor (2/8, Feldmann), among other news outlets, also report on Obama’s speech.

SME Daily Executive Briefing
2/8/2011

U.S. Manufacturing Starts to Pick Up

By Ed Crooks and Hal Weitzman, FT.com
February 7, 2011 — Updated 0129 GMT (0929 HKT)

(FT) — Demand for capital equipment in the US is starting to pick up strongly, manufacturers say, boosting confidence in the health of the economic recovery and raising hopes of a revival in American industry.

Comments in recent days from many of the leading manufacturers of capital goods — including factory equipment, earthmovers and truck components — have suggested that while the fastest growth is still likely to be in emerging economies, they also expect significant growth in US sales.

Emerson, the Missouri-based manufacturer of industrial equipment, told investors at the end of last week that it expected non-residential investment in the US to grow by 8-9 per cent this year; as much as the average for emerging markets.

The company said it expected that the pressure to cut costs and expand capacity would encourage many industries to raise their capital spending this year — and companies that cut investment sharply during the downturn would be forced to catch up, replacing worn-out and obsolete equipment.

David Cote, chief executive of Honeywell, which makes aircraft and vehicle components and industrial equipment, told the Financial Times: “I do believe the US economy is more resilient now. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we’re on the comeback trail.”

Caterpillar, the world’s biggest manufacturer of earthmoving equipment, is raising its capital spending budget from $1.7bn in 2010 to $3bn this year. More than half of the budget will be spent in the US to build capacity, going towards projects such as an excavator factory in Texas and a motor-grader facility in Arkansas.

“If you look at our 2011 outlook, it’s still with the US, Europe and Japan well off historical peaks,” Ed Rapp, Caterpillar’s chief financial officer, told the FT. “So, in this cycle, we have tried to get ahead of some of that, to put the investment in place now. That way when we get a more robust recovery in the developed world, we’ll be ready.”

Eaton, the Ohio-based manufacturer of industrial equipment and components, has said it expected its US sales to grow faster than its international sales this year. Sandy Cutler, Eaton’s chief executive, told the FT that demand was “far stronger than people had thought it would be”.

The Institute of Supply Management survey released last week pointed to the fastest rate of growth for manufacturing industry since 2004.

Barry Knapp, strategist at Barclays Capital, said two factors contributed to the upturn in confidence since last summer: the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying programme and signs of a more business-friendly approach from Congress.

Factories added 49,000 jobs in January

By Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

Manufacturers emphatically defied Friday’s lackluster employment report, adding 49,000 jobs last month in what some economists say should signal the start of a surge for the beleaguered industry.
The job gains were the most by manufacturers since August 1998. More impressive, they came despite an otherwise disappointing report that showed employers added a net total of 36,000 jobs in January, far fewer than the 146,000 expected.

Strong job gains by U.S. factories would be a welcome boon to a sputtering job market. Makers led a modest jobs rebound early last year as firms replenished stocks depleted in the slump. But it petered out in August after shelves were refilled and substantially higher customer demand didn’t materialize.

Higher demand is finally kicking in, particularly in emerging markets, says economist Cliff Waldman of research group Manufacturers Alliance/MAPI. And productivity gains that let makers put off hiring last year amid economic uncertainty are wearing thin.

After adding 112,000 jobs in 2010, producers are projected to add 275,000 this year and 300,000 more in 2012, according to the alliance. That would offset some of the 2.3 million losses in the downturn. Those layoffs “were clearly overdone,” Waldman says.

Yet don’t expect the industry to reclaim its former employment. The industry lost nearly 4 million jobs in the 10 years prior to the recession due to technology advances and the flight of jobs to countries with lower costs. Waldman expects those trends to continue.

Last month’s job gains were by makers of durable goods, such as cars, factory gear, metals and computers, much of them exported to overseas businesses. Makers of non-durables such as apparel, food and paper shed 13,000 jobs amid still moderate U.S. consumer demand, Waldman says. Some hiring:

•After keeping its 192-worker staff stable the past few years, Atlas Machine & Supply in Louisville added 10 workers the past 90 days and last month converted two temporary employees to full time. The industrial parts maker increased overtime last year. But Atlas President Rich Gimmel says, “You reach a point of diminishing returns when you work 70, 80 hours a week.” Plus, “The recovery seems to be getting some legs.”

•Ford Motor added 600 workers in Ohio and Michigan since November to speed production of vehicles and engines, spokeswoman Marcy Evans says. U.S. car sales rose to an annual rate of 12.6 million last month from 11 million early last year.

•No. 1 aluminum maker Alcoa said last month it’s re-opening three U.S. smelting plants this quarter that will employ 260. “We see more demand going into aluminum,” CEO Klaus Kleinfeld says.

•Top chipmaker Intel added 3,000 workers last year, about double projections, as demand for servers and notebooks surged.

Multiple Indicators Point To Strengthening Economy.

Under the headline “Economic Data Indicate Strength,” the Wall Street Journal (2/4, Sparshott, Leo, subscription required) reports that service sector growth is rising at a sharp pace, mirroring the performance of the manufacturing sector, while productivity is also on the rise. That may change, and “there is a good chance that productivity will slow further this year, as firms are increasingly forced to hire more workers to expand output,” one economist said. But overall, the predominance of indicators are pointing to stronger economic momentum for 2011.

The AP (2/4) concentrates its reporting on “the US service sector, which employs nearly 90 percent of the work force.” The sector’s increases bode well for the job market. The index from the Institute for Supply Management “rose to 54.5, the highest since May 2006. The employment indexes in the manufacturing and service sector indexes both rose in January, a positive sign that the economy may soon generate more jobs.” And, “the report’s index of new orders jumped to 64.9 last month, the highest in seven years. That’s a sign that services firms will keep growing.”

Under the headline “Data Points To Stronger Growth Momentum,” Reuters (2/4) quotes Robert Dye of PNC Financial Services, who said, “Momentum from the end of 2010 is carrying over. It will be another year of recovery and repair.”

Despite Snow, Retailers See Strong January Sales. The New York Times (2/4, B3, Hauser) reports, “Retailers kicked off 2011 with better-than-expected sales in January, with some relying on discounts to clear merchandise left over from the holiday season.” Overall, “same-store sales rose 4.2 percent in January compared with a 3.3 percent increase in the month a year ago and forecasts of 2.7 percent,” and these gains “followed a holiday shopping season that was the strongest since 2006.” However, “some analysts said that January in general was not considered a good bellwether month for the rest of the year.” And “while the results exceeded forecasts, analysts said there were challenges ahead as rising costs pare profits.”

SME Daily Executive Briefing


Manufacturing activity increases at fastest pace since Jan. 2004

Orders for goods jump

CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER AP Economics Writer

9:36 a.m. CST, February 1, 2011

WASHINGTON (AP) – Factory activity expanded in January at the fastest pace in nearly seven years, as manufacturers reported a sharp jump in new orders.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private trade group, said Tuesday that its index of manufacturing activity rose last month to 60.8. The sector has expanded for 18 straight months, and January’s reading was the highest since May 2004. Any reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The manufacturing sector bottomed out at 33.3 in December 2008, the lowest point since June 1980. It has helped drive growth since the recession ended in June 2009.

Consumers are spending more on autos, appliances and other goods, while businesses have invested in more industrial machinery and computers. Those trends boosted economic growth to a 3.2 percent pace in the October-December quarter, the Commerce Department said last week.

Factories healthy pace of expansion is likely to continue in the coming months. Manufacturing firms surveyed by ISM said their backlog of orders jumped in January, pushing an index measuring that activity to 58 from 47.

U.S. factories are also benefiting from rising overseas sales. The index of export orders jumped to 62 in January, from 54.5 the previous month. That matches a recent peak reached in May.

The employment index also rose, a sign that manufacturing companies are hiring more workers. And the prices paid index, which measures whether manufacturing companies are paying more for raw materials, jumped sharply. That’s a sign that inflation could pick up soon.

If manufacturers are unable to pass on the higher costs, it could cut into their profit margins.

 

US Businesses Expand At Fastest Rate Since 1988

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Increases to 68.8 in January

By Alex Kowalski – Jan 31, 2011 8:10 AM PT

Businesses in the U.S. expanded in January at the fastest pace since July 1988, indicating the world’s largest economy has momentum at the start of the year.

The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer rose this month to 68.8 from 66.8 in December. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion, and economists projected the gauge would slip to 64.5, based on the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Click the pictures to the left for the video.

Orders, production and employment increased as manufacturers such as Catepillar Inc. benefited from a pickup in consumer purchases and stronger export markets in emerging economies such as China. Consumer purchases in the final three months of 2010 were the strongest in more than four years, figures last week showed.

“This fortifies the stability of the recovery,” said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAglobal in New York. “You definitely see traction from manufacturing going forward.”

Estimates from 41 economists for the Chicago purchasers’ index ranged from 60 to 71.3, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Data today from the Commerce Department showed Americans’ spending rose more than forecast in December. Household purchases increased 0.7 percent, while incomes gained 0.4 percent for a second month, the figures showed.

Stocks held gains after the reports and Treasuries fell. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.5 percent to 1,282.74 at 11:07 a.m. in New York. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note increased to 3.35 percent from 3.32 percent late on Jan. 28.

Orders, Employment

The Chicago group’s production gauge rose to 73.7 from December’s reading of 72.2. The gauge of new orders increased to 75.7, the highest since December 1983, from 71.3. The employment measure rose to 64.1, the strongest since May 1984, from 58.4 the prior month.

Economists watch the Chicago index and other regional manufacturing reports for an early reading on the outlook nationally. The Chicago group says its membership includes both manufacturers and service providers, making the gauge of measure of overall growth. Its members have operations across the U.S. and abroad.

Other measures of regional manufacturing have shown strength in January. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Jan. 18 said manufacturing expanded in that region this month, and the Philadelphia Fed said two days later that factories grew for a fourth month.

Auto Sales

Automakers are seeing sales pick up. Car purchases in December rose to a 12.53 million unit annual pace, the highest since August 2009, from 12.3 million in November, industry data showed this month.

The ISM’s monthly national factory index, due tomorrow, was probably little changed at 58 in January after 58.5 the prior month. A reading above 50 signals expansion.

A pickup in consumer demand, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, could add to gains in manufacturing. The Commerce Department reported last week that household purchases rose at a 4.4 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the fastest in more than four years, while the economy grew at a 3.2 percent rate.

Consumers may further ramp up spending as they benefit from an $858 billion bill extending all Bush-era tax cuts for two years. The legislation also extended the window for expanded unemployment insurance benefits through 2011, trimmed payrolls taxes and included accelerated tax depreciation for equipment purchases.

The manufacturing industry, which accounts for about 11 percent of the economy, has been at the forefront of the economic recovery that began in 2009.

Caterpillar Profit

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, posted fourth-quarter profit that topped analysts’ estimates as sales advanced in China, Australia and Latin America. Revenue climbed 62 percent to $12.8 billion from $7.9 billion a year earlier, the company said last week.

In 2011, sales will exceed $50 billion, compared with $42.59 billion in 2010, according to the company.

“There’s quite a bit of pent-up demand there yet to come,” in North America, Ed Rapp, chief financial officer of the Peoria, Illinois-based company, said last week during a conference call. “The tailwinds come as we get more robust growth.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net.

My answer to Lorelai’s question

Metal fabrication and the machinery used in such could be considered manly, and for good reason. When I consider the machinery and process a quote by Tim Allen comes to mind.

“Argh Argh Argh”.

Those of you who are familiar with Tim The Tool Man Taylor understand that. Those of you who don’t…well…you need to pick up a copy of the show and broaden your horizons. Great stuff.

But even as I can relate to the Tool Man and consider myself a man’s man, I must admit something.

I’m a big fan of another show. Quite the fanatic actually.

The Gilmore Girls.

Yep, I admit it and am so confident in my manliness that I admit it with no reservations and with considerable pride.

Now that I got that off my chest, I can move forward with my point. You see the other night I was watching an episode and the main character Lorelai said something in jest that actually got me to thinking.

She said “What happened to all the anvils in the world”. Hmmm….. Interesting question if you think about it. She then goes on to talk about how you saw them all the time in old westerns, old west TV shows, and of course Looney Tunes as Wile E Coyote seemed to have an endless supply of them and went through them as if they were an everyday disposable.

So I turned to my good friend Google and started digging.

With the advent of welding technology, which we’ve covered before, anvils fell out of use as the primary tool for metal working, a tool that predates history actually. It might even predate humanity as chimpanzees have been seen using a log as an anvil and a stone as the striker to open hard to crack nuts.

Today they are only used for some custom one off work and are essential for farriers.

But I have a theory of where the anvils went.

In the air!!

I’m talking about anvil firing. Very interesting, anvil firing. It has been used as a source of celebration for many years, kind of like fireworks.

Here is the concept. One takes an anvil and turns it upside down. This is used as the base. The concave in the bottom of the anvil is filled with black powder (not gunpowder as it is to powerful). Then another anvil is place on top of it right side up as the “flier”. A wick is used, sparks fly, and the anvil is launched sometimes hundreds of feet in the air. It was commonplace in the southern United States and is actually approximated in the movie “Sweet Home Alabama”.

Although there are many variations today of the practice, the general concept is the same. This sounds like fun to me and thus proves my own manliness.

What’s more manly than blowing stuff up!!

3.2% GDP growth rate boosts hope for 2011

WASHINGTON —

The economy gained strength at the end of last year as Americans spent at the fastest pace in four years and U.S. companies sold more overseas. The growth is boosting hopes for a stronger 2011.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that growth rose to an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the October-December quarter. That’s an improvement from the 2.6 percent growth in the previous quarter. And it was the best quarterly showing since the start of last year.

The economy has now consistently picked up speed since hitting a rough path in the spring.

From the Associated Press
January 28, 2011, 5:47 a.m.